AFC West Battle

I think the AFC West is another one of those divisions that a lot of people will have their eyes on during this upcoming season, as well as excitement. Yes, even for the Raiders who finished last in the previous season. We see the Broncos that could still be the team to beat, much like they were last season; a lot of people think they would have been in the Superbowl if Bo Nix wasn’t injured for the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs have Mahomes coming back from injury and after acquiring the Superbowl MVP, are hoping their quarterback won’t lead the team in rushing yards. The Chargers look much the same, just much less injured. They also added an offensive coordinator who often is considered to have one of the best scoring minds out there. Then we have the Raiders, while they finished last a season ago, they look to show improvement and maybe at some point, show off their first overall pick. 

Below I’ll break down each team, what changes they’ve made this year, how they might look and point out some betting lines. Off the top, when looking at betting lines, the books definitely think this conference will be close, so shop around! While they all have the Chiefs as the favorite to win the division, the number 2 and 3 flip flops across books and every single odd for those top three teams are different. Same can be said for some win totals as well, definitely a division to shop around. Although I’ll point out a bunch of bets, I’m not personally betting them all; I’ll let you know when I bet a particular bet that I mention.

Denver Broncos

After a great season last year, the Broncos are looking to repeat that success this time around. Generally they didn’t tinker with the team all that much in the offseason, why change a good thing really? One change they did make was elevating Davis Webb into a bigger offensive role with the play-calling duties. While they have quite an elite defense on this team, it’s no secret that they could use a boost on the offensive side; I think the hope is that Davis Webb can elevate the amount of explosive plays. While they have an elite defense, they did lose defensive end, John Franklin-Myers. This could hurt their pass rush a little bit, but all-in-all shouldn’t have a huge effect. 

Broncos Country, let’s Waddle

Losing Bo Nix deep in the playoffs last season really took away this team’s chance to make the Superbowl and instead led to a very underwhelming AFC Championship game. With their quarterback coming back healthy, they are looking to repeat much of the success they had a season ago. If Bo Nix plays the same, then this team will be just fine but if he is able to grow even more in this position, then Denver can be very dangerous to play against. The biggest move the Broncos made in the offseason was trading for Jaylen Waddle, not only does it add an elite wide receiver to this team, it should also give some more options out there for Bo Nix. A great addition to the team that can only help them if Waddle remains healthy. 

Betting on Horses

To Win the Division or Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins or to Make Playoffs

+220 -125 -142

I know there’s so many options, but I think they are all compelling because I can see this division go any direction. If you’re high on the Broncos and think they can repeat to win the division, then that’s a decent enough plus-line when you can find them as the third favorite on some books. With their defense that can keep them in really any game, this is possible. The next two just get a little more conservative. I like the Broncos and I think they will do well this season, I just don’t think they will get to 14 wins again with their schedule and possibly more competition within the division. I think they can get over 9.5 wins but I also like the odds for them to make the playoffs since it’s possible to do that with only 9 wins as well. Really -125 and -142 aren’t that far off. I haven’t laid down any of my own funds, but there’s a very high chance I’ll bet them to make the playoffs. 

Bo Nix over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns

-105

Last season Bo Nix had 25 passing touchdowns and the season before he had 29. Not the biggest sample size, but he’s gone over that number both of his playing years. I think if the offense truly is more explosive or dangerous, then that’s a good argument for this number. On the other hand, their divisional rivals have gotten better/healthier and their schedule isn’t very easy, so that doesn’t necessarily help. 

Kansas City Chiefs

After missing the playoffs for the first time in quite a while, the Chiefs are looking to bounce back this season. Injuries to Patrick Mahomes and an underwhelming offense mixed with a struggling rush game really killed the Chiefs chances. Mahomes is coming back to the lineup now and even by adding Justin Fields, they gave themselves a bit more wiggle room. I think with Fields, if something happens, you don’t have to remake the entire playbook so to speak. Over the offseason this team did lose some veteran pieces on the defensive side of the ball. While their experience will be missed, Kansas City did a pretty nice job at rejuvenating their defense with some pieces from the draft. There may be some growing pains on that side of the ball but it’s nice to see this team infusing some youth into the group when an overall degradation of the team’s core had been going on.

Walker, Don’t Run

Similar to the Broncos, the Chiefs did a nice job of addressing a key part of their defense that seemed lacking. They did this in a bit of a flashy and exciting way by adding the Superbowl MVP, running back Kenneth Walker III. This is a pretty huge addition since their running game really hasn’t been very good as of late, especially when their quarterback was among their rushing leaders when he was healthy. This will help the team overall and help their chances of keeping Mahomes healthy. The only other question that really remains is if by adding a skilled running back, will this give them enough extra options to make their receivers more effective as well. 

Chief Investment Officer

The Chiefs are the favorites for the division and the most consistent number for wins, set at 10.5. Being the favorites with so many other good teams in this division, I’d keen to avoid this. I think the Chiefs can go either way, they can remind everyone of their dynasty dominance or have just a good but underwhelming season. So I’m keeping away from their division and win bets here. Even their chances at being a wildcard team doesn’t have very enticing odds, considering that they are the favorite. 

Looking at other odds too, Mahomes is the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year with not the most enticing line either. Tough team to bet right now but I think that leaves some juice on the others a bit.

Kenneth Walker III Rushing Touchdowns over 7.5

-105

7.5 seems like a competitive number for Kenneth Walker since he only scored 5 times last season, but last season in Seattle, Zach Charbonnet scored 12 touchdowns. Clearly Walker wasn’t the goal-line running back and I think he should see more opportunity to get his touchdown numbers up with the Chiefs. 

Los Angeles Chargers

In one way or another, the top three teams of this division last year were all effected by injuries and the Chargers were no exception. While a lot of the stars were able to keep playing most of the season, they were scorched a bit by the sheer volume of injured players that they had to deal with. Even with that, they still put up a pretty decent fight. This year everyone is hoping to see what all the Chargers and Justin Herbert can do if they can stay even half as healthy this year. One of those keys will be to also protect their quarterback and try to give him more time for this season.

Electrifying the Offense

While Justin Herbert had a nice season last year, their offense hasn’t been very flashy or exciting; you know, everything we expect from a Jim Harbaugh run team. Although they didn’t make any flashy player acquisitions like I just talked about with the Chiefs and Broncos, they did make a flashy move in the offensive coordinator position. The addition of Mike McDaniels could really make their offense more electric and fun. This should lead to more motion on the offense that can create easier throws for Justin Herbert. I do expect to see some growing pains in the first couple of games but I’m excited to see how this offense develops and potentially gets more efficient as the season continues. 

High Voltage Value

To Win the Division or over 9.5 Wins

+201 -140

Depending on the book you’re looking at, the Chargers can be ranked 2nd or 3rd in the division. When they are ranked third, there’s a bit of value on them to win this division, but I think I’d more interested in that win total. They don’t quite have as much value as the Broncos, but still a bit of meat of the bone if you see them getting to ten wins like I do. While I do like their odds at making the playoffs, I don’t like the chalk the books are giving me. Not the worst bet, but I don’t get very excited about that one.

Justin Herbert over 3599.5 Passing Yards

-110

Here’s one I’m putting my money on. It’s both a bet on Justin Herbert and a bet on Mike McDaniels in my mind. If they really do succeed in making more efficient throwing situations then this should work out. Justin Herbert has only failed to surpass this amount of passing yards once before and that was the year he only played 13 games. So as long as he’s healthy, I feel very strong on this one. I’ll also just mention that there’s a bet out there for season leaders in passing yards, Herbert is set at +2000. It’s a longshot, but if everything goes well with this new offense, it has potential. I’m not betting that right now but when I get a free bet, that’s probably where I’m putting it. 

Quentin Johnston over 649.5 Receiving Yards

-130

I like this one similar to the reasons mentioned above, plus he’s exceeded that number by a decent margin in the last two years. I think he can easily get a new career high this season.

Las Vegas Raiders

Besides beating the Patriots in week 1 last season, the Raiders had an otherwise pretty forgettable season. Coming out of that season, I think it’s hard to imagine how they wouldn’t improve this season. Moving on from Geno Smith to Kirk Cousins doesn’t necessarily elevate this team much higher, but they did do a lot of nice other movements to improve the roster. Tyler Linderbaum is a nice addition in the middle that should pay dividends and a decent looking youth movement is another highlight. If there’s one thing to be excited about with this team, it seems to be that they are finally rebuilding and embracing young players, rather than just trying to plug the holes with veterans.  

The Mendoza Line

One of the more exciting acquisitions is their first overall draft pick, quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Although they have announced that Kirk Cousins will start the season for the Raiders, it should be exciting to see Mendoza get in some action at some point this season. When he does, there will definitely be mistakes, but it should be fun to see some of his playmaking abilities and see if that arm shows flashes of brilliance to bring up to NFL speed. A lot of people think Kirk Cousins will start the season and get the Raiders past the first group of tough games on the schedule, then they will put in Fernando Mendoza. I like that narrative, but only time will tell if we start the boos rain down in Vegas when there’s no Mendoza sighting. I guess the biggest question with this team is, where is the Mendoza Line?

Raiding the Sportsbook

I find this tough with not knowing if and when Mendoza will play, makes me second guess the numbers I’m seeing for yards, touchdowns, etc. The win total is 5.5 and that’s about where I have them, so I’m not interested in that. I do like their defense though and their first game of the season is against the Dolphins. The spread for the Raiders is +3.5 and I’ll likely look at betting that.