AFC North Breakdown

Here’s my second look at a division in my analysis of every team going into this season. This time we head to the AFC North where you have three teams with experience, legendary quarterbacks and lots of exciting games to come with the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers. Of course the Browns are there too. Those Browns seem like the outliers in this division, which at this point is one consistent thing we can point out about them. I will continue to point out some of the key changes, maybe some expectations and I’ll look at a few bets to consider and bet on myself. As usual, I won’t be betting everything I point out, but I will say where I put my money. Let's take a dive in these 4 teams that all feature new coaches and new looks.

Baltimore Ravens

This team has been at the top of this division a lot for a long time now. I think they’ve established that they were pretty consistent and always competitive as long as everyone was healthy. I think like a lot of people, I'm considering their season last year as an anomaly. With that said, it’s no secret that their success in the season and Lamar Jackson MVP seasons just haven’t taken them all the way, a slight shake up was in order around these parts. 

New Look

It’ll be strange to watch Ravens games and not see John Harbaugh out there. It made sense he was their coach for such a long time, they have strung together a ton of top seasons with him at the helm. Not only does bringing in Jesse Minter and his new defense coordinator change the look of the sidelines, it changes the look of the team. This could both hurt and help them at the same time. There may be some growing pains having had only one coach and similar systems for a long time and you just have to hope that it doesn’t hurt them in the early games of the season. With that said, of course a different look makes them less predictable to other teams too. There's really two things that this new coaching staff should do, add more creativity and bolster the defense a bit. We’ve known what to expect from this team for a long time but now comes along something new and something exciting; even if that’s more of a nervous excitement. Lamar is a tremendous athlete and can adjust well in real time during games. It should be interesting to see if the structure holds together and how much improvisation we see from him this year. Bringing in new coaches allows the team to run the defense in a new way as well; sometimes it felt like Ravens games could be a shootout at times, I think defensive stability and slowing down the pace can really help if they pull everything else together.

That was a little long winded but that’s not the only change to the team coming into this season. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson should be pretty exciting for Ravens fans to watch this year as well as making Bengal and Steeler fans bite their nails when they see him coming after their QBs. They added some defensive depth as well and that will definitely help them as the season stretches on.

Betting Lines

Lamar Jackson MVP

+850

Second on the list after Josh Allen and so the second lowest odds. Makes sense, he’s won it before and is still dangerous. I won’t be betting this since it’s Lamar, thought I’d post it anyhow.

Over 11.5 Wins

+115

I only post this because it's a plus line. I was looking at division winner odds and they are the favorite and have a minus line. I think if you want to bet on the team's success, this is where you do it instead. If they win the division, they should have 12 wins or more. (Update: I’m seeing +108 to win division now, so these aren’t as far apart as original writing of this post)

Aiden Hutchinson Defensive Player of the Year

+916

You may be able to find better lines on this one by shopping around, but this can be a nice play. From where I was looking, he’s the third favorite for this bet and so you get a decent enough number. I think if you want something but a bit more pop and a potential to hit, this is a nice play as well.

Cincinnati Bengals

Always such a streaky team with an incredible quarterback that has problems playing the whole season. Joe Burrow has an MVP caliber skillset and it is pretty clear in most games that he actually plays (see bets below). It would be fun to see him actually be healthy this season, I mean, who doesn’t love watching an amazing QB get down to business. 

If Cincinnati Can Stop Somebody, the Rest of the AFC Has a Problem

The Bengals have made some nice moves and draft picks over the last couple of offseasons to both help their defense and the offensive line. I think if it works out, this could be a mighty fine season for the Bengals. What I mean is, last year the O-line improved from being at the bottom of the league to at least generally being in the middle. The team didn’t really change anything at all in that department; while not being that exciting for fans, I like the consistency and you always hope that at least a couple of the players can take a step forward for the new year. If they can help keep Burrow on his feet more, then maybe we will see him play at least most of the season. This offseason, the team focused more on their defense both bolstering it and adding some nice depth from the draft. Dexter Lawrence is a huge addition as well and hopefully his presence can provide them a bit more leadership as well with some of their young players and new draft picks. The Bengals will definitely miss Aiden Hutchinson but the addition of Dexter Lawrence will give their other edge rushers more opportunities as other teams have to account for his power and ability to break down the pocket. This defense may not look as flashy with the loss of Hutchinson but it should be better balanced while hopefully still getting lanes to the opposing QB. 

Futures

It’s hard to trust the Bengals after the last few seasons they’ve had but their ceiling has always been pretty high. 

Joe Burrow MVP

+950

Clearly if he’s able to remain healthy, there’s a huge chance of Burrow making MVP. He has some elite skill combined with elite pass catchers. 

Ja’Marr Chase Offensive Player of the Year

+1000

As the third favorite for this award, there’s some meat on the bones with this plus line. He’s the first wide receiver on this list and for good reason. Maybe if you can’t put down Burrow as MVP, this may be a little more enticing, with Joe Flacco as the backup again, the guy can still sling some balls.

Division Winner and Win Total over 10.5

+175 +115

I like these plays and I already took the over on the 10.5 wins. I think they have a nice schedule though and personally I think their schedule has more “winnable” games then the Ravens. If you’re really high on the Bengals, I don’t even mind taking over 11.5 wins for +200; being a higher plus-line, I’d even be tempted in taking this over the division winner future if that’s where you were leaning. I know that the Steelers won the division with fewer wins last season but if we truly expect the Ravens to bounce back and if the Bengals stay healthy (and actually improve defensively), then it should take 12 or more wins to secure this division.

Pittsburgh Steelers

I think for the first time in ages, there’s some question marks in Pittsburgh. Changing coaches is a big deal for this team, it doesn’t happen often and Tomlin was there for a very long time. Hopefully the fans can turn this change into excitement this year. Other than that, the Steelers really haven’t changed that much, so their defense should still be their classic defense, which is a great thing. This is just a shift in offense and perhaps a farewell tour for Aaron Rodgers.

Trust Tomlin McCarthy?

The one and only “flashy” move that the Steelers did was change coaches. Moving on from Tomlin was a huge decision after he provided them with winning season after winning season for a long time. I don’t think that’s a bad thing though, the team is in a kind of interesting spot, they have some good players on offense, still have that Steelers defense core but a legendary quarterback that’s on his farewell tour. I think McCarthy is a nice choice because he knows Aaron Rodgers and will be able to work with him well since Aaron wants a lot of say on the offense. McCarthy also provides a certain efficiency to the offense that could help them out with that stability. From there, I think if he’s going to stay as the coach, then that efficient approach can help them out for the quarterback who steps in next. 

I know the Steelers won the division last year but even if the offense is more efficient, it’s hard to see them pull that off again. The Ravens look like they will be back as a contending team this year and the Bengals have always been the wildcard of the division; but with their defense improvements, they will be harder to shake off. With that said, I think fate is in their own hands to make the playoffs and make some noise. 

Betting the Steelers

Wins Over 8.5

+115

I think if you’re high on the Steelers, this is the route to go. The other option is to make the playoffs for +150. Honestly though I prefer this win total bet because it’s still a plus-line and really isn’t that much of a difference to ask them to potentially do less. I have two main concerns with the Steelers this year, one is that this division is tough and the second is that their schedule in my rankings is more difficult than the Ravens and Bengals schedule. A wildcard spot is also going to be very difficult considering the teams that got in with wildcard positions last year had 12, 12 and 11 wins (Bills, Texans and Chargers).

DK Metcalf over 824.5 Receiving Yards & Aaron Rodgers over 20.5 Passing Touchdowns

-110 -110

I like these both, especially the passing touchdowns prop, that one isn’t asking for MVP Aaron Rodgers, it feels like it's asking for participation ribbon Rodgers. The one thing that might make me hesitate is his age leading him to miss some games, that’s why I included that DK Metcalf play. Let’s face it, Metcalf is a beast and this number of 824.5 isn’t asking that much of him. If you want to really go wild, I noticed a play for 10+ Receiving Touchdowns from DK Metcalf for +900. Last year he had 7, but for the price, might be worth the gamble as well.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns once again pressed the reset button on another season. That’s probably their most consistent quality right there. It’s hard to see a high ending to the season for this team both based on the strength of their division and the constantly struggling identity crisis. Recently they named Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback over Shedeur Sanders; it leaves a lot of mixed feelings and really proves once again that they never take the boring road at least. 

Where to go From Here

Does anyone really ever have an idea what the plan is in Cleveland? I sure don’t. The Deshaun Watson decision isn’t necessarily a surprise but it also isn’t the most inspiring announcement. He may be starting week 1 and perhaps a little further but honestly, it's hard to imagine a world where we don’t see Shedeur coming into games sooner rather than later. Deshaun has his fate in his own hands though, it is a contract year and if he wants to continue his career or really prove he should have that top QB spot, this is really his last chance. 

I think it will be fun to see how Quinshon Judkins does this year. From what we have seen from the Browns’ quarterbacks, they really need their running back to be able to perform. Other than that, the team just has to hope that their defense can keep them in some of those games where they have a chance to win; their schedule isn’t that bad, so there are opportunities to be had for them. Without Myles Garrett, their opponent’s QBs won’t be shaking as much in their boots, but I still think this defense has something to offer. 

Where do you Trust your Monie?

Thinking of bets for the Browns is difficult. I think they can be incredibly unpredictable. Last year they lost several times by scoring ten or fewer points but they also beat the Bengals, Steelers and Packers. Who knows how many games Deshaun Watson will even play as well; the books I have accounts on don’t even have future props on him. Hell, they don’t even have touchdown props for their running back, really shows even the books can’t figure out this team. I did request both of those lines though just out of curiosity, so lets see what comes back.

Quinshon Judkins over 899.5 Rushing Yards

+100

Although they didn’t have many other lines out there like I mentioned, they did have a yard total for Quinshon Judkins and I don’t mind it. Honestly with this team I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with 898 yards on the season. With their quarterback situation though, I don’t see how he doesn’t get a ton of touches, so I could see him getting close to that 1000 yard mark if he stays healthy.