AFC South Analysis

The AFC South has the potential to be a pretty fun division to watch this season. After looking at some other divisions, this one seems to show a bit more stability in the AFC in terms of the team’s identities compared to last season; you see a lot of returning players and returning coaches as well. Last year the Jaguars pulled off the division win by one game, this year I can probably make an argument for any one of three teams to win it. The Texans look to win it with defense and an improved rush game, the Jaguars are going to throw the team on Trevor Lawrence’s shoulders and ask him to be a hero and the Colts are looking to repeat the first half of last season but through 17 games this time. Then of course you have the Titans, they added some nice pieces and are trying to see what Cam Ward can do with a more functional team.

Houston Texans

I think of all the teams in the AFC South, the Texans seem to have the highest ceiling. Not only will they be vying again to have the best defense in the league, but they also improved their offensive line a little, a running back upgrade and wide receiver depth. With that defense and the improvements this team made in the offseason, it almost seems like this division is theirs to lose. The one factor that needs to click for them to pull that off is an improvement from C.J. Stroud. 

Defense First, Explanations Later

Clearly this team’s biggest strength is their defense, it’s really what’s allowed them to be successful over the last few seasons. They added even more depth to it for this upcoming season, really making sure no holes can form when injuries inevitably happen. What’s even more impressive is how they tweaked their offensive line both in the free agency and in the draft. This was really important for this team because it should give Stroud a better chance at making higher quality plays. On top of that, it should help their running backs that really struggled last year and hopefully open up some lanes for them to work. 

Helping with that is the addition of David Montgomery in the running back position. He has excellent physicality and gives them that little more front end depth. So if they can’t open up lanes again, he is one guy who can sometimes push through that. I think this team makes the playoffs but what can really make them a Superbowl contender is higher quality play from C.J. Stroud. If he can throw with more accuracy, has more options with the team depth and can restrict the turnovers a bit more, they can make it very far in the post season.

Just a few days ago, the Texans traded for Kayshon Boutte to add to their wide receiver depth. I think that has to tick all the boxes for this team and what they needed to address. It did seem like they needed another wide receiver both for more options and also to add depth in case of injury. This is a very nice acquisition for them. 

Lone Star Lines

Division Winner

+120

If it didn’t show from what I’ve said so far, I’m pretty high on the Texans. I think even if CJ Stroud doesn’t show improvement, their defense and improved rushing game can be enough to win this division. I don’t think the Jaguars got any better this season (I actually think they may have gotten worse with their run game). Then there’s the Colts, I do think they have the potential to win this division too, but at the end of the day, I’m going to trust a sturdy defense just slightly more. Since every team to win this division is a plus-line though, there is the opportunity to bet them both. If CJ Stroud plays better this season as well, there’s the option of the Texans winning the AFC for around +900. I don’t highlight it because I feel like I should get a better number.

C.J. Stroud over 3574.5 Passing Yards

-110

Stroud was under this by about 500 yards last season, so that’s pretty far away, especially since this is an OVER play. With that said though, in his three seasons, he’s gone over this number twice. With improvements to the O. line, you’d think you’d see some sort of improvement from CJ as well. Shop around for this number though, I saw another one of my books with a much higher yardage, this one came from Bet365.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It was nice to see the Jacksonville Jaguars win this division last year, they seem to have had good looking offenses for a few seasons but always lacked on defense, and had too many turnovers. They didn’t have a very exciting offseason, which often isn’t a bad thing, but I think in their case, they lost more than they gained. I really don’t see them repeating what they did last season.

Jacksonville’s Air Show

With Etienne now gone to the Saints, the Jaguars are going to need to hope that either the offensive line can show improvements or their new duo of running backs can make some noise. Without improvements in that department, this reduces the balance of Jacksonville’s offense. So basically if the run game and protection lag, Trevor Lawrence seems to likely need an MVP caliber season in order to challenge for the division. I can see this season be a throwing heavy one for the quarterback and with that, it will likely include more contact from defenders on Lawrence; never a good thing. Both them and the Texans don’t have the easiest schedule, so it will be a battle to make the playoffs. 

Futures Angles

To Make Playoffs

+100

I don’t think I could bet this just because I’m so unsure about this team. I think making the playoffs is the best the Jaguars can hope for though both because they may be less balanced offensively but also because they have a fairly difficult schedule. I see their team wins set at 8.5 as well. I’m not sure that 9 wins will get them in the playoffs either, so that might be an angle to look at instead. 

Trevor Lawrence to Throw Most Interceptions

+1400

Last season, Trevor Lawrence threw 12 interceptions, tied for fifth most in the league. Considering that I’m expecting him to throw more this season, making this a pretty nice plus-line. It’s no shade against Lawrence, he just has a tendency to throw them. Geno Smith threw the most last year at 17 for reference. He’s at +900 to repeat as the champion in this statistic, and I’d consider playing him too except Geno was sacked 55 times last season! That’s a lot. So I can see Geno still throwing his interceptions but perhaps a touch less than last year since he should have better protection. 

Indianapolis Colts

What a disappointing ending to a season after the Colts started last year as one of the best in the league. It should be fun to watch them and see if they can make that good play last longer this season. The clear reason for that downfall was the season ending injury to their quarterback, Daniel Jones. He’s back though and I think a lot of people are wondering how the Colts will fare this season. 

Jonesing for a Full Season

When Daniel Jones went down with a season ending injury last season, they lost every single game after that point. They started the season 8-2 before he went down, so clearly if they keep Jones in the games, they have a shot at winning. While Daniel Jones will miss throwing the ball to Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts tried to compensate by adding Keenan Allen. They also lost a few pieces to their defense but also tried to plug those holes as well. All in all, I don’t really think they look better than they did last season, but I can also see them not being a downgrade. Keenan Allen may have some age to him but he’s smart, experienced and shouldn’t hurt them from the loss of Pittman Jr. The Colts were also able to add Sauce Gardner to their defense, he’s a nice and young talent that can be there for a long time and contribute nicely as well. The patchwork they did to recover from their player losses looks like it might have some strong thread sewn in.

Lucky Horseshoes?

To Make the Playoffs

+170

If you like the Colts more then the Jaguars like I do, then this is a bit more of an enticing bet. I also think it's the best the Colts can manage. Just like the Texans and Jaguars, they have a fairly difficult schedule. I see their win total set at 7.5 on some books, so also worth a look and probably a safer bet as well. I’m hesitant to make this playoffs bet just because of the schedule, but I may take another look at the wins. 

To Finish 2nd in Division

+250

I like this one even more than the playoffs bet. Generally I think the Texans win the division with their defense, the Jags are still good but take a step back and that leaves room for the Colts. I’m actually going to go bet on this one right now.

Daniel Jones over 19.5 Passing Touchdowns

-110

This one just seems interesting because in only 10 games last season, he had 19 of these. As long as he’s healthy and plays more games, this shouldn’t be asking that much of him. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are clearly still in a rebuild that they are trying to build up around Cam Ward on the offensive side of the ball. They still have some defensive pieces but are definitely a young group that will be figuring things out in all aspects. This is also the second season for Cam Ward, so the idea seems to be to build more of a supporting cast around him and see what he’s capable of at this level.

Music City Mayhem

At times it should be pretty fun to watch the Tennessee Titans, it will be full of chaos with highs and lows. The Titans just have to hope that the highs can outnumber the lows. I don’t see them as a playoff team but I think they are one team that can potentially surprise people. I think the goal is to improve from their 3-14 record last season and maybe steal a win or two. I think Robert Saleh can further improve the defense, which always helps and while they didn’t necessarily add anyone who jumps out as elite, they made a lot of smart additions this offseason. The idea I think is to get another full year of Cam Ward; it’s no secret that this year’s draft is pretty quarterback driven, and if he doesn’t seem like he can cut it as the team's cornerstone on offense, then they will draft high enough to get someone who can be. Or at the very least, make a quarterback competition. I don’t have much else to say about this team, it’s clearly a season of learning, figuring things out and hopefully lots of growth. Every year there is always one or two surprising teams though, they could end up being one of those if everything clicks.

Titan up, Bet Down

Cam Ward over 3250.5 Passing Yards

-115

This one I bee-lined to immediately to see what the books were giving me for a number. Well, either this or his touchdowns total, which was set at 19.5. The reason I’m looking at passing yards though is because last year he had 3169 yards and 15 passing touchdowns. This all a numbers decision for me because where I think both are possible with the improvements they made this offseason, the difference between 3169 yards and 3250.5 is just under 3%. The difference between 15 touchdowns and 19.5 is about 33%. I’m only going to ask him to improve by 4% in his second year. What really sold this to me is that he was tied for first in the league last year with being sacked 55 times! I expect them to protect him a touch better this year and should help with his yardage. This is one bet that I did make. 

This is really all I have for Tennessee Titans futures. I find them a bit hard to predict for their season outcome. I think that goes for this whole division though. 

They will be better than their 3 win total last season, but how much better? I see their win total set at 6.5 and I think that’s about right. With a nice season and looking at their schedule, I see their ceiling at 7 wins. I love their potential to be bet on a game-by-game basis. Specifically for the first few games of the season, I’m going to look at the numbers for pass attempts and the spread. Their first game is against the Jets and I really think that will be a nice measuring stick game. Also I find it a little entertaining that both those team’s quarterbacks were the sack leaders last season.