AFC East Outlook

To start off this NFL division breakdown we are headed to the AFC East. I’ll point out some things I think are notable, interesting and anything in between that I feel like mentioning. Maybe I’ll point out some bets too; this doesn’t mean I bet them, I may in the future but I thought they were interesting. The numbers I see for betting odds are based off of the books I have, you may find better numbers if you hunt around. If I liked a bet enough, I’ll mention that I actually laid down my own money for it. I will track my bets that I mention as well (as opposed to everything I bet) and keep you updated there. 

Buffalo Bills

Without doubt, the Buffalo Bills have been a fun and impressive team to watch the last few years and I expect to see more of the same here this year. The only thing that can really slow them down is an injury to Josh Allen (and perhaps with James Cook).

Notable Changes

Coaching:

Joe Brady will enter this season as the new coach, which is pretty major considering this is has been pretty consistent for years. Will a new face take this team to the finish line? Honestly, I’m not so sure. Brady was promoted from OC to this position so its not a culture shock for this team like it may be for someone like the Ravens. I think what that does is helps the team keep rolling into this year and I still expect a strong start from them. 

The more interesting thing is the change to the defense with Jim Leonhard coming in as DC. Generally I do like this change for them; I think changing from a more traditional 4-3 defense into something a bit more fluid and unpredictable can make a difference when they play against those teams with top QBs and that are hovering at the top of the divisions. Besides the excitement of what Josh Allen can do, I’m looking forward to seeing how this defense works against top teams and top QBs (Hello week 5 vs the Rams, Week 7 vs the Ravens, week 11 vs the Chiefs and two games against the Patriots)

Moore Chubb: Key Changes

I like the addition of DJ Moore of course, they needed a bit of wide receiver help, that’s been clear. They should spread the ball a bit more and be a touch more unpredictable than previous seasons, he fits this perfectly and gives a nice physicality to the wide receiver group. 

Bradley Chubb is obviously a nice little addition for the Bills as well. Any improvement to the pass-rush will only help them against the top teams, which really is what they needed to do. Every time they are knocked off by a top team, it’s close. One sack, one interception, one fumble can change that whole outcome. 

The loss of Johnson hurts a bit but I think the other additions in defense adds a touch of depth but also makes the loss hurt a little less with the new and versatile defense they are looking to run. Again, when watching these Bills games, I’m very interested in how this defense performs against top contenders. 

Bye Trubisky. I know he was just the backup but he’s smart, flexible and experienced. Let’s face it, it’s hard to keep Allen from being banged up here and there. Depending how the season shakes out, Trubisky may be missed. 

Betting Lines and Notable Bets:

Division Winner 

-135 (Bet365)

Barring something absolutely bonkers happening, this is between the Bills and Patriots. Buffalo is the favorite everywhere I have accounts. I don’t like this number that much, it’s not surprising but I like a little more meat on the bone for futures. 

Josh Allen MVP

+650 (Sports Interaction)

He’s the favorite everywhere I have for this bet and we all know he can pull it off. It’s possible that if they really can spread the ball around a bit more he can be even more dangerous. Could be worth a look but I’m not sure I’ll be laying down anything for this.

Wins Total

10.5 and 11.5

-130 and +150 

If I’m going to bet on the Bills, I think this is where I am putting my money. I think you can bet either, they went 12-5 last year and I can see the same record this year if they lose half their games to top teams. 

Miami Dolphins

What a complete change for this team. I don’t really know what to think of them the last few years; they clearly had some nice pieces but never really pulled it together. Now it’s pretty clear where they are going and what they are up to. This is a rebuild with changes all around.

Shifting Gears:

They will look very different from how they looked fairly consistently for a while now. A different QB, huge changes to the wide receiver group and a re-tooling of the defense, new coaches. This is like an explosion went off on the team, as big of a change as you can make. So with that said I won’t analyze every single change they made. Feel free to talk about them with me though if you comment or want to join a Discord! 

I will say though, with their coaching change, Jeff Hafley will dramatically improve the defense and develop those players. They nabbed some really nice pieces in the draft, especially on the defense side and so they are doing the right thing in building for the future. If you’re a Dolphins fan, don’t be discouraged with probably having a bad season, embrace the changes and know that at least for now, they are making the right decisions and moves to have some success in the near future. Rather than complaining about what they do badly, note where they can improve and see if they actually do as the season progresses. 

Betting:

Honestly, I don’t see much I like, mostly because of such a dramatic overhaul, I’m just more keen to see them in action… With that said though, I did find one thing that I’m somewhat considering.

To Finish Last in Division

-175

You may be able to find a better number on this, this is pretty chalky but it was only listed on one of my books so far. Basically it’s a bet of them to have a worse record then the Jets. I think Miami has a harder schedule than the Jets, so this is worth a pretty good look.

New York Jets

Once again, the Jets have retooled and reset. It feels like this just happened not long ago and multiple times. Somehow I can still see potential for this team though. They have some nice, young talent and structure that they’ve collected the last few years and while the time with Aaron Rodgers, other coaches and whatnot didn’t lead to anything changing, I can see a future for this team if they can stay out of their own way. A new GM seemed necessary, but we will see what happens. 

Retool:

There’s a lot of similar players from previous seasons but they key with them will be their coaching and a total redo of the offense. Defensively they won’t be dramatically different but I think modernized a bit with a more aggressive approach. They also added nice depth there and really kept the defense a stabilizing force on the team. The big impact I think is the offense since it is being completely overhauled. With that said, Geno Smith makes sense to bring in, he’s intelligent and can help the point across. 

The big keyword is stabilizing. 

Jets Bets:

Honestly, I don’t like that much with this team. The wins are set at 5.5 and I get that number as well. I won’t leave you hanging completely though, I will be making player prop bets with this team. The reason I say that is because Geno throws interceptions, especially when behind in games. So I’ll be looking at that. 

I’ll also be looking at Garret Wilson’s receptions. I expect him to be peppered with passes, so in the first few games of the season I’ll look at what number they give and go from there. Keep an eye out!

New England Patriots

This is a fun team to watch again with the longest tenured AFC East coach in Vrabel (Funny little tidbit). They made the superbowl (Hello week 1 vs the Seahawks), so the expectations are pretty high here. They had a nice offseason with some nice moves, so fate is in their own hands. 

Big Additions:

I really liked what they did to add even more this team, they really bought in to build on last year and take advantage of having two weak teams in the division. Adding A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs are very nice, extra targets and excellent ball grabbers are welcome everywhere. Drake Maye will just need to capitalize on this by having a season just as good as the last one and this is made much easier with those new receivers. I’m looking forward to seeing who wins this division between them and the Bills. 

Betting Thoughts:

I think there’s a lot to consider with this team and I think a lot of people are pretty high on their players this year, so I’ll try and curb my enthusiasm as well. Buffalo is the favorite for this division and with good reason. Although with that said, I think there is some value in betting the patriots to win the division and possibly some fun player props.

Pats Win the Division

+125

I only like this because it's a plus line and I think we can all admit that there’s a chance the Patriots could finish higher than the Bills. This is especially true if Josh Allen misses a game or two, which seems a bit more likely then Drake Maye missing some games. But also, I think you can plug and play with the Patriots if Maye goes down.. I won’t be betting this, but if you need Patriot plays, I don’t hate it. 

To Make the Playoffs

-182 (Sports Interaction)

Chalky, I know; I like it though anyway. I think the thing for me is that I’m pretty confident in this team to make the playoffs. If any one of their star players goes down, I think they can still make it is how I look at it.

Player Props

Drake Maye passing yards over 3799.5 yards (-110)

Drake Maye passing TDs over 26.5 (-105)

A.J. Brown receiving TDs over 7.5 (+115)

I can see all of these going over to be honest and I won’t be playing all of them. I don’t like to load up too much in one place essentially. Since it has a plus one and he has a great ability to seak balls and grip them, I’ll be playing the AJ Brown own. 

Sure, please provide the text of your blog post, and I'll help you with spelling and grammatical corrections, as well as suggest some funny twists!